The Numbers Are Clear, and They're Not Getting Better

There are fewer than 60,000 Board Certified Behavior Analysts (BCBAs) nationally. That's the entire certified population. And demand is growing at 8-12% annually while the pipeline of new BCBAs is growing at 3-4%.

Autism diagnosis rates are rising (now roughly 1 in 36 children, up from 1 in 150 just 20 years ago). More states are mandating insurance coverage of ABA services. ABA organizations are expanding service areas. And most importantly, families are demanding that the clinicians delivering care to their children are well-trained and well-supported, not just credentialed.

The result is a structural supply-demand mismatch that's only getting worse. Every ABA organization in the country is struggling to find BCBAs. And it's not because BCBAs don't exist—there are 60,000 of them. It's because they're concentrated at a handful of large providers, and most organizations don't know how to recruit and retain them.

The BCBA shortage isn't a shortage of people who could be BCBAs. It's a shortage of organizations that know how to attract, develop, and keep them.

Why Traditional Recruiting (Post and Pray) Fails Here

Most ABA organizations recruit BCBAs the way they recruit everything else: post a job, hope good candidates apply, interview the applicants. This approach is failing because:

1. Good BCBAs are not job hunting. If someone is a good BCBA, they're already employed. They're not scrolling Indeed. They're not sending unsolicited resumes. They're working. You need to recruit them away from their current job, which requires a different strategy than passive job posting.

2. Compensation is often undercompetitive. Most organizations don't do real market research on BCBA compensation. They budget based on what they think BCBAs should cost, not what the market is actually paying. Then they're shocked when candidates laugh at the offer. Meanwhile, competitors are paying 15-25% more and attracting all the good talent.

3. They don't understand BCBA motivation. BCBAs didn't go into ABA to get rich. They went into it because they care about outcomes. They want to work somewhere that measures and optimizes for client outcomes. Most recruiting doesn't speak to that. The recruiting message is "we have a BCBA role open" not "we're building the best clinical outcomes in the market."

4. Organization quality is invisible. A good BCBA can tell you whether a clinic is well-run by talking to current staff. If your organization has quality problems (high caseloads, poor outcomes, burned-out staff), word gets out. And good BCBAs won't join. But you're not addressing those underlying problems; you're just posting a job and wondering why no one applies.

5. Caseload and schedule are often dealbreakers. The #1 reason BCBAs leave their jobs is unsustainable caseload and schedule. But most recruiting doesn't address this. Organizations are offering unsustainable caseloads because that's what their unit economics require. Good BCBAs say no. Bad BCBAs (or desperate ones) say yes. And then they leave in 10 months.

What Actually Works: The Pipeline Approach

Organizations that are successfully recruiting BCBAs aren't using a "post and pray" model. They're building talent pipelines that address the supply problem directly. Here's what that looks like:

University Partnerships and Certification Program Pipelines

The best BCBA pipeline is the one that brings certified behavior analysts into your organization before they're certified. Partner with BCBA certification programs (like those offered at universities with applied behavior analysis master's programs, or through board certification paths).

What this looks like:

  • Post-bac mentorship programs where soon-to-be BCBAs work at your clinic under supervision of existing BCBAs
  • Partnerships with master's programs where you hire graduate students as research assistants or practicum students
  • Sponsorship of BCBA exam fees in exchange for a commitment to work at your clinic for 2 years
  • Relationships with certification bodies so you hear about candidates who just passed the exam, before they hit the job market

This approach takes 18-24 months to mature, but once mature, it's your most reliable talent source. You're not competing for BCBAs in the open market. You're building your own.

Structured Career Laddering from RBT to BCBA

Many organizations have Registered Behavior Technicians (RBTs) on staff. RBTs are clinicians who could become BCBAs with proper training and support. But most organizations don't have a structured path for RBTs to become BCBAs.

What to build:

  • Clear criteria for which RBTs have the potential to become BCBAs (not just performance, but intellectual curiosity, problem-solving orientation, ability to handle ambiguity)
  • Sponsorship of RBT-to-BCBA education (master's programs, certificate programs, whatever the path is)
  • Reduced caseload during the study/certification phase (so RBTs can actually study)
  • Mentorship from existing BCBAs during the certification period
  • A guaranteed role (and often, a raise) upon certification

This is transformative. Instead of fighting in the market for external BCBAs, you're developing BCBAs from your existing staff. You know they're good (they're already working for you). You know they fit your culture (they're already part of it). And you're building incredible loyalty by investing in their growth.

One client we're working with has converted four RBTs to BCBAs over 18 months. That's four BCBAs they didn't have to recruit in a competitive market.

Competitive Total Compensation Analysis

Do actual market research on BCBA compensation. Not educated guesses. Real research.

  • Survey what other ABA organizations in your market are paying BCBAs (by experience level)
  • Understand the full compensation package: salary, bonus, benefits, PTO, caseload expectations, schedule flexibility
  • Be honest about what you can actually offer
  • If you can't match market rate in salary, compensate with other things (lower caseload, more schedule flexibility, better benefits, clearer advancement path)

Most organizations underestimate what they need to pay BCBAs. If you're competing for BCBAs and your salary is 15% below market, you're not going to win. You need to be competitive on at least one dimension (salary, caseload, schedule, career opportunity, outcomes focus).

Mission-First Employer Branding

BCBAs care about outcomes. Make that the center of your employer brand.

Not "we have a BCBA opening," but "we're building the highest-impact ABA program in the region," or "we measure outcomes obsessively and fire approaches that don't work," or "we're one of the few ABA organizations in the country where clinical staff have decision-making authority over treatment protocols."

This branding work is ongoing:

  • Case studies of clinical outcomes you've achieved
  • Spotlights of your BCBAs and their work
  • Conference presentations showcasing your approach
  • Relationships with key opinion leaders in ABA
  • A reputation for supporting BCBAs in ways that matter (professional development, research opportunities, autonomy)

When potential BCBAs are considering your organization, this reputation precedes you. It makes recruitment much easier.

Relocation Packages for Underserved Markets

There's uneven geographic distribution of BCBAs. Major metros have plenty. Rural areas and secondary markets have shortages. If you're in an underserved market and can't attract BCBAs with salary alone, relocation packages work:

  • Moving cost coverage
  • Signing bonus
  • Housing assistance for the first year
  • Spousal job placement support

This is expensive for one hire. But if you're in a market where you need 5-10 BCBAs, spreading that cost across a cohort makes sense.

Retention: The Real Problem

Most organizations focus on recruitment. They should focus on retention. Here's why: it's cheaper to keep a BCBA than to recruit a new one. And if your retention is good, your reputation improves, and recruitment becomes easier.

The #1 reason BCBAs leave their jobs is unsustainable caseload and ethical concerns about the quality of care they can deliver. Address this directly:

  • Cap caseloads at levels where BCBAs can deliver high-quality supervision
  • Have annual conversations about caseload sustainability
  • If caseload has to grow, compensate with higher salary, lower hours, or more support staff
  • Make it safe for BCBAs to raise concerns about quality of care
  • Back up BCBAs when they make clinically sound decisions, even if those decisions cost money

Organizations that treat BCBAs as cost centers (pack as many on their payroll as possible, keep salaries low) lose them. Organizations that treat BCBAs as the core of their clinical excellence keep them.

The Economics: This Costs Less Than Turnover

Building talent pipelines and investing in retention sounds expensive. But do the math on turnover:

A BCBA who leaves after 18 months costs you:

  • Recruitment cost: $15,000-$25,000
  • Onboarding cost: $5,000-$10,000
  • Lost productivity while they ramp: $10,000-$15,000
  • Patient outcomes disrupted by clinical continuity loss
  • Staff morale impact (when good people leave, other good people notice)
  • Three months of vacancy while you recruit

Total: $30,000-$50,000 per BCBA lost.

The investments that prevent this (university partnerships, RBT-to-BCBA development, competitive compensation, mission-first branding) cost money upfront but save significantly over time.

What This Looks Like in Practice

An organization we're working with had 6 BCBA positions, couldn't fill two of them, and was losing one BCBA every 18 months. They implemented:

  • Partnership with local university ABA master's program (led to 2 new BCBAs over 18 months)
  • RBT-to-BCBA sponsorship program (developed 1 internal BCBA)
  • Salary increase of 12% across the board for BCBAs to match market
  • Caseload cap of 20 (down from 28) with corresponding rate increase to offset revenue loss

Year one: expensive. Year two: they had zero BCBA vacancies for the first time in five years, and they developed their first internal BCBA who became their clinical leader.

The Shortage Won't Be Solved at the Market Level

The BCBA shortage isn't going to be solved by the market. There aren't enough BCBAs being trained. The demand is outpacing supply structurally.

Which means individual organizations need to solve for it. Not by competing for scarce BCBAs in the market, but by building their own talent pipelines and creating environments where BCBAs want to stay.

The organizations that do this are winning. They're expanding service capacity. They're building team strength and clinical excellence. They're creating space where BCBAs can do their best work.

The organizations that stay in "post a job and hope" mode are stuck. They have vacancies. They're overloading their existing BCBAs. And they're losing good people.

The choice is yours.